Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100843
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous 
advisory.  Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye feature 
has filled, deep convection have shifted to the southern side of the 
circulation, and the outflow appears to be impinged in the northwest 
quadrant.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have 
plateaued, with final-T numbers coming down.  The initial intensity 
is held at a possibly generous 90 kt, in agreement with the latest 
TAFB and SAB estimates.

The window for intensification seems to have closed.  Vertical wind 
shear appears to be strengthening significantly over Leslie.  Global 
models insist the strong upper-level winds will strip away deep 
convection and force in the surrounding dry mid-level humidities 
into the circulation quickly.  Given the relatively small size of 
the hurricane, rapid weakening is expected over the next few days.  
Leslie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday 
and open into a trough by early next week. 

Leslie is moving northwestward at about 5 kt.  This motion should 
continue through today as Leslie moves around the southwestern 
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  On 
Friday, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the north and 
north-northeast, followed by a turn northeastward and 
east-northeastward as it accelerates further over the weekend.  
There have been only minor changes to the latest NHC track forecast, 
which lies essentially on top of the previous prediction and between 
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 22.9N  49.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 23.6N  50.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 24.9N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 27.0N  49.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 29.5N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 32.0N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 34.2N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/0600Z 36.5N  28.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci