Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 030845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E 
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a 
slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast 
through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to 
move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning 
area tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a 
tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early 
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across 
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, 
Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may 
lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart