Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022045
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

The lastest visible satellite imagery shows the center of the 
depression as a tight swirl of low-level clouds near patches of 
strong, but somewhat disorganized, convection.  The remnant 
vorticity of the 97E disturbance, also a swirl of low clouds, was 
seen earlier to the southeast of the depression center.  A recent 
ASCAT overpass shows a small wind core matching the tight cloud 
swirl with maximum winds of about 30 kt in the northwest quadrant, 
and based mainly on this the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The track forecast remains low confidence.  The depression is 
currently undergoing a binary interaction with the EP97 
disturbance, which has resulted in a southwestward motion during 
the past several hours.  The models still have somewhat diverse 
solutions for the subsequent track, although the ECMWF has now 
joined the GFS and Canadian in forecasting a northward motion.  
However, the UKMET still forecasts a west-northwestward
motion offshore of the Mexican coast.  An additional complication 
is that some of the guidance suggests the center could move 
eastward before beginning the northward motion.  The new forecast 
track again has significant changes from the previous track to 
follow the northward motion scenario, bringing the center to the 
coast of Mexico between 36-48 h.  However, it does not currently 
show any eastward motion before the northward motion, and more 
changes may be necessary in later advisories if the track guidance 
warrants.

There is no change to either the intensity forecast philosophy or 
the intensity forecast. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone 
tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to 
strong easterly shear through at least 48 h.  This should limit the 
intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains 
at the upper edge of the guidance.  The main impact from this 
system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to 
flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western 
Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico.  A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, 
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican 
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 14.1N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.0N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.5N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 15.0N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 16.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0600Z 16.7N  98.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven