Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020234
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

The depression has not become better organized this evening.  Deep 
convection has been separating from the low-level center, which is 
now exposed to the east of the thunderstorms.  The initial 
intensity is held at 30 kt, near the high end of the satellite 
estimates.  

The system is close to the coast, currently over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and appears to be moving northward at about 5 kt.  
The models don't have a good handle on this system, likely because 
it is weak and relatively small.  The official track forecast 
continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF solution, taking the system 
inland over southern Mexico on Wednesday.

There could be a little strengthening before the depression reaches 
the coast, but given its current structure, significant 
intensification is not expected.  The main impact from the system 
is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and 
mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. 


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday.   A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for that area.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 15.6N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 15.9N  94.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 16.5N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1200Z 17.0N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi