Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 261439
PWSEP5

HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MANZANILLO     34  3  19(22)   7(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

L CARDENAS     34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
L CARDENAS     50  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
L CARDENAS     64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ZIHUATANEJO    34 59   1(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY