Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 260234
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 105W       34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MANZANILLO     34  2   8(10)   6(16)   9(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

L CARDENAS     34 79  15(94)   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
L CARDENAS     50  9  31(40)   6(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
L CARDENAS     64  2  12(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

ZIHUATANEJO    34 76  15(91)   1(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  3  10(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 100W       34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ACAPULCO       34  4   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

P MALDONADO    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN