Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 232048
PWSEP5

HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 100W       34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ACAPULCO       34  2  11(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
ACAPULCO       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

P MALDONADO    34 88   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
P MALDONADO    50 49  18(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
P MALDONADO    64 16  19(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

P ANGEL        34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

HUATULCO       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 95W        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN