000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231756 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane John Public Advisory
23
Sep