Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 161447
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the 
eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon.  This activity is 
limited and not particularly well organized however, with the 
coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C.  Based on a subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or 
so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a 
mid-level ridge.  During the next couple of days, the ridge is 
forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the 
north and northeast of Gordon.  This flow evolution, along with the 
interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to 
the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward 
the north in 36 hours or so.  Some of the global models are showing 
a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears 
likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone 
throughout the forecast period.  The official track forecast has 
been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction, 
and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks.

Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the 
environment is still a bit dry.  The dynamical guidance indicates a 
further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level 
humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters. 
Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours, 
in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 19.1N  48.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 19.2N  48.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 19.5N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 19.9N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 20.5N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 21.6N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 23.1N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 26.0N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 28.0N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch