Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
200 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Data from the Mexican radar at Guasave indicates that the center of 
Ileana has moved onto the coast of Mexico in the state of Sinaloa. 
The system is still producing bursts of convection to the north 
and northeast of the center, and surface observations show the 
winds to the northwest of the center are in the 25-30 kt range. 
Based on this, the intensity is held at 35 kt, with these winds 
likely occuring along the coast near and east of the center.

The initial motion is now 360/5 kt. A turn toward the northwest and 
a slow forward speed are expected during the next 6-12 h, with a 
continued northwestward motion after that.  This motion should 
bring the center across the coastal region of the state of Sinaloa 
for the next 12 h or so, followed by a motion over the Gulf of 
California roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, with this 
motion continuing until the system dissipates.  The new track 
forecast is again nudged to the north and east of the previous 
track and lies near the various consensus models.

Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength in a 
few hours due to a combination of shear and land interaction.  
However, until that happens, the cyclone should continue to 
bring bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern 
coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora through this 
afternoon.  The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low 
between 12-24 h, with the remnant low dissipating over the central 
Gulf of California on Monday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of 
coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall 
will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the 
area. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 25.5N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  15/0600Z 26.1N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR COAST
 24H  15/1800Z 26.6N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z 27.2N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven