187 WTPZ34 KNHC 140535 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...ILEANA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 109.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) was reported at Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur, during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in southern Baja California Sur through early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
14
Sep