Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion

750 
WTPZ44 KNHC 140236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Tropical Storm Ileana is gradually becoming less organized as it 
skirts the southern coast of Baja California Sur.  Infrared 
satellite imagery shows convection being stripped away from the 
low-level circulation and radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas still 
shows a poorly organized, elongated center.  Based on the degraded 
presentation of the storm and the earlier ASCAT data, the initial 
intensity is set to 35 kt for this advisory.  

The storm is moving northward at 8 kt, and the center is expected 
to begin pulling away from the coast of Baja California Sur in the 
next couple of hours.  This motion should continue through most of 
Saturday before the weakening cyclone turns more north-northwestward 
over the Gulf of California.  The track guidance has shifted 
eastwards slightly, largely due to the initial position, and new NHC 
track forecast lies between the consensus aids and the previous 
prediction.  

Vertical wind shear is expected to increase dramatically over Ileana 
in the next day or so.  The model guidance is in good agreement that 
weakening should continue, and the official intensity forecast now 
shows Ileana becoming a depression by Saturday, a remnant low by 
Sunday, and dissipated by early next week.  However, it is possible 
this could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this 
weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions could continue in portions of Baja 
California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm 
Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 23.5N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci