Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion

928 
WTNT42 KNHC 081451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface 
data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a 
fairly well-defined eye present.  The initial wind speed is set to 
60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface 
observations.  While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are 
still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and 
these are detailed in the Key Messages below.

Beryl should remain a potent wind gust producer for the next few 
hours with recent observations in the eastern eyewall reporting 
wind gusts above 70 kt. As more of the circulation moves inland 
later today, Beryl is forecast to steadily weaken and become a 
tropical depression tonight or overnight.  No change to the 
intensity forecast has been made.  

The storm is moving north-northeastward, now a little faster at 11 
kt.  Beryl should turn northeastward and accelerate across the 
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple 
of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.  The new forecast 
track is similar to the previous forecast, a bit to the east.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through 
this afternoon along the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine 
Pass, including the eastern portion of Matagorda Bay and Galveston 
Bay.

2. Damaging wind gusts near the core of Beryl will continue to 
spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area, including 
the Houston metro area, for the next several hours. 

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into 
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and 
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also 
expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. 
Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards 
and local officials before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 29.8N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  09/0000Z 31.5N  95.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 33.9N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0000Z 36.7N  89.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  10/1200Z 39.7N  86.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  11/0000Z 42.2N  82.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z 44.0N  78.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake