Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 369

   Mesoscale Discussion 0369
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of north/central FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

   Valid 031702Z - 031830Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple
   of tornadoes should continue across parts of north/central Florida.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across north FL has become more parallel to
   the mid-level southwesterly flow. This has slowed its southward
   advance across the FL Peninsula, but additional thunderstorms have
   also strengthened recently across the eastern Gulf of Mexico along
   or just ahead of a cold front. Given the mainly linear nature of
   these thunderstorms, current expectations are for mainly a damaging
   wind threat to continue through the afternoon as the airmass south
   of the ongoing activity gradually destabilizes. Strong deep-layer
   shear of 40-50 kt will help maintain thunderstorm
   organization/intensity. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
   to support updraft rotation with embedded circulations and some
   tornado threat within the line, and with any cells that can develop
   across the open warm sector.

   ..Gleason.. 04/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28868322 29358294 30148115 29588084 28858080 28408109
               28168213 28248304 28868322