000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite data and surface observations from the El Salvador International Airport suggest the center of Julia is passing very near the coast of El Salvador this morning. A band of deep convection has persisted over the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, where tropical-storm-force winds are thought to still be occurring. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT data swaths missed capturing Julia's wind field, and there have not been any recent high-resolution passive microwave overpasses to assess the structure of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion of Julia is west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today as the cyclone is steered by a ridge to the north. Weakening is expected as the center moves near or over the coast of Central America, and Julia is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate by tonight. However, it is possible that the surface circulation dissipates even sooner than forecast once it moves over the rugged terrain of Central America. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of Central America through today. Although Julia is forecast to dissipate by tonight, residual moisture and vorticity associated with its remnants could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning over portions of the coasts of Honduras and El Salvador within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible today along the Pacific coast of Guatemala. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart