000 WTPZ42 KNHC 050251 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 During the past few hours, convection associated with Paine has decreased significantly, as most of the cold cloud tops near the center are currently comprised of cirrus debris. This decrease has not yet affected the various satellite intensity estimates, which remain in the 35-40 kt range. The initial intensity is thus held at 40 kt, but this could be generous. The window of opportunity for Paine to strengthen is just about closed. The cyclone is starting to encounter increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and it is embedded in a dry air mass that may make it difficult for the convection to re-develop. Indeed, simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS run suggests the possibility that the convection may not return even at the normal diurnal maximum in about 12 h. The intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening, with the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low between 24-36 h and dissipating completely between 60-72 h. Both of these events could happen earlier if the convection does not re-develop. The initial motion remains northwestward or 325/5 kt. This motion should persist for the next 12 h or so. After that, a slow motion toward the west-northwest and west is anticipated as the weakening Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The new official forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven