000 WTPZ42 KNHC 040239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022 The structure of Paine this evening appears to be holding steady, with deep convective cloud tops between -70 to -80 C pulsing primarily to the east of the well-defined low-level center. While deep-layer vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is currently low (under 10 kt), the shear below this layer appears to be higher, and this is likely what is resulting in the current sheared appearance on satellite. Subjective Dvorak numbers from both TAFB and SAB were CI 2.0/30-kt at 0000 UTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT was a bit higher at T2.5/35-kt. The initial intensity is held at 35-kt in deference to the earlier ASCAT data and higher ADT estimate. The regional hurricane guidance suggests the environmental mid-level shear will continue, and the deep-layer shear is expected to increase markedly after 24 hours. In addition, the tropical cyclone is embedded in a dry mid-level environment (sub 50 percent) which should also prevent significant convective organization in the short-term. Still, the 12 hour forecast provides an opportunity for the storm to intensify a bit during the diurnal convective maximum. However, Paine's intensification is likely to be short-lived, with gradual weakening expected thereafter as shear increases and the thermodynamic environment begins to decline. The simulated IR imagery from the ECWMF and HWRF models suggest convection will subside near the cyclone in the 48-60 hour mark, and the latest forecast makes Paine a remnant low by the 60 h mark. The intensity forecast largely follows the latest consensus aids, aside from being a bit higher in 12 h, similar to the LGEM guidance. The initial motion remains off to the north-northwest estimated at 335/5 kt. The cyclone is currently feeling a mid-level weakness in the ridge to its north which should allow the system to gain more latitude in the short-term while it remains convectively coupled. However by 36-48 hours, this convective activity should wane, leaving Paine to be steered more by the low-level trade winds, generally westward. The track guidance this cycle is in two camps, with the ECMWF and regional hurricane models (HWRF/HMON) faster to the north, while the GFS and Canadian, which do not have a good current representation of Paine, are slower and turn the cyclone to the west earlier. The track forecast follows closer to the ECMWF and the HFIP corrected consensus approach, which leans towards a somewhat faster and more poleward motion for the first 48 hours of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.2N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 18.0N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 19.3N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 19.3N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin