000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene has not changed much in organization during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing a small central dense overcast with ragged outer convective banding. Interestingly, a recent SSMI/S overpass indicates that, despite analyses that the shear is 5 kt or less, the convection under the overcast is a bit asymmetric and mainly occurring to the southwest and south of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are essentially unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 48 h. These conducive conditions, combined with the small inner core, should allow steady to rapid strengthening once the core convection becomes more symmetric. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 48 h. After that time, the global models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear that is likely to cause quick weakening. The official forecast calls for a 60-kt intensity just before landfall, and this is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the storm moves faster than currently forecast. The initial motion is still northwestward or 320/4 kt. Rawinsonde data shows a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico to the northeast of Orlene, and a combination of rawinsonde data and water vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. Orlene should turn northward and north-northeastward between these features during the next couple of days, with this general motion continuing for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in 48-60 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico just after 96 h. This forecast is close to the consensus models, but slower than the GFS model. It should be noted that some of the ensemble guidance is forecasting the possibility that Orlene will get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore through 120 h. Watches will likely be required for portions of the western coast of Mexico and the Islas Marias on the next advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven