000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190240 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Madeline has increased in organization over the past several hours. The low-level center is now embedded underneath the northeastern portion of a mass of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. A recent SSMIS overpass also shows a well-defined curved band within the western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-3.0, and support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. There is a small window of opportunity through Monday morning for Madeline to strengthen a little more, as the storm begins to move along the shear vector and remains over warm waters and within a favorable thermodynamic environment. However, by late Monday the cyclone is forecast to reach the 26 degrees C isotherm and begin to move into a progressively drier and more stable environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to begin by that time. Both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite suggest that Madeline will become devoid of deep convection by Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was increased through the next 24 h, but is the same as the previous advisory thereafter. Madeline is continuing its slow turn to the left, and is now moving northwestward at 8 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is beginning to increase the cyclone's distance from the coast of southwestern Mexico. Based on this and surface observations, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch that was in effect for the portion of that coastline. Model guidance is in very good agreement that Madeline will turn to the west-northwest on Monday night and then west by Tuesday as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The combination of this track and a contracting wind field should keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of the southern Baja California peninsula as the system passes to the south through Monday night. The latest NHC track forecast is very little changed from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.3N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 20.1N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.6N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1200Z 21.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z 21.2N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 20.8N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto