ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Deep convection has increased again near and to the west and southwest of the center of the tropical cyclone. This is likely a diurnal fluctuation, and the convection is not very well organized. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt, which is the average of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The depression has been drifting a little north of west with a current motion estimate of just 280/2 kt. Georgette is expected to turn northward or north-northeastward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is likely to build to the north of the cyclone which should induce a turn toward the west. The official forecast track is shifted a little eastward from the previous NHC prediction, toward the latest multi-model consensus guidance. However, there is a lot of spread in the model tracks, so the official forecast is of relatively low confidence. Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. These conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause degeneration into a remnant low in the latter part of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and lies between the latest LGEM and DSHIPS guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 12.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.2N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 15.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 15.4N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN