000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Georgette has looked a little less organized during the past few hours. Cloud tops associated with its deep convection have warmed, and its banding features appear to be less defined than they were earlier today. It's unclear if this is a sign of imminent weakening or just a reflection of diurnal fluctuations of the tropical storm's convection. Satellite intensity estimates vary from 30 kt to 50 kt. The NHC intensity estimate will remain 45 kt for now, which is notably the same as the TAFB Dvorak assessment. No changes of note were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast for Georgette with this advisory. Unfortunately, the track component of the forecast is still of very low confidence. The small tropical storm should continue moving generally west-southwestward to westward for the next day or so. By early Monday, a breakdown of steering currents should cause the tropical cyclone to take on a slow meandering motion. The much larger Hurricane Frank is forecast to move north of Georgette on Sunday and Monday, which could contribute to a slow eastward drift for Georgette. The GFS is one example of this scenario, however the ECMWF shows no such eastward movement, while other models fall between those two solutions. As a result, even though all models indicate that Georgette will begin drifting northward early next week, the model spread is quite high. The NHC track forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory at most forecast times beyond 24 h, but is a little east of the multi-model consensus at most forecast times. The intensity forecast is more certain. Georgette's current marginal environment is not likely to change substantially, which should cause it to slowly weaken through early next week. The intensity model spread is very low, increasing confidence in this part of the forecast. NHC's updated intensity forecast is near the middle of the small guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.2N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.1N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 13.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 14.1N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 14.9N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky