000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Georgette has maintained a consistent structure today, characterized by persistent convective activity to the south and southwest of the estimated center. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that the storm has maintained its intensity, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level circulation remains well defined. Thus the initial intensity is held constant at 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory. East-northeasterly steering flow continues to influence the west-southwestward motion, which has not changed much since the prior advisory. The current estimated motion is 255/8 kt. Later tonight, the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward speed by tomorrow. In association with the slowing forward speed, track guidance diverges after 24-36 hours, and the spread among the guidance members suggests high uncertainty in the track forecast after 36 hours. Some members of the guidance suite indicate a sharp turn toward the northeast, while others suggest a continued west-southwestward motion prior to turning northward later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is a compromise between these solutions, close to the HCCA and slightly to the west of the prior NHC forecast. The intensity forecast has not changed much since the prior advisory. East-northeasterly vertical wind shear, close proximity to the much larger Hurricane Frank, and a relatively dry airmass to the northeast of Georgette are expected to inhibit significant intensification throughout the forecast period. The intensity is forecast to remain steady for the next day or so, with gradual weakening forecast to occur after the storm turns toward the northeast. The official intensity forecast is in line with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 13.1N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 13.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 15.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Beven