000 WTPZ42 KNHC 290238 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Frank continues to become better organized this evening. The storm has developed a well-defined outflow in the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest Frank is a 55-kt tropical storm. The initial intensity has been adjusted upward to match these estimates. The vertical wind shear over Frank appears to be diminishing. Significant strengthening is expected since atmospheric and oceanic conditions are predicted to be conducive for intensification, and the most recent statistical model guidance indicates high probabilities for rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. As a result, the official forecast now shows a faster rate of strengthening in the next day with a peak intensity of 95 kt by 48 hours. After that time, Frank is forecast to cross over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the system to weaken into a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period. Frank is moving westward at 9 kt. The storm is forecast to turn to the west-northwest shortly as it is steered around the periphery of a subtropical ridge. Within a day, Frank should turn northwestward as it moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track prediction is very similar to the previous advisory forecast and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another to interact. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 13.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 14.9N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 17.4N 118.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 18.7N 119.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 19.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 22.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 24.4N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi