000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201438 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no major changes from the previous advisory forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci