911 WTPZ31 KNHC 181444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci