118 WTPZ21 KNHC 160834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI