000
FOPZ11 KNHC 160835
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 105W 34 19 74(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
15N 105W 50 2 61(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
15N 105W 64 1 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 39(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 34(47) 1(48) X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 21(78) 1(79)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 22(45) X(45)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) X(26)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) X(26)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 22(43) X(43)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 29(64)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI