000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050842 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 While Bonnie continues to generate well-organized central convection with cloud tops temperatures near -80C, the eye has become less distinct over the past several hours. There has been little change in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt in best agreement with subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is starting to experience moderate northerly to northeasterly shear, and this will likely continue through the next 24-36 h. The shear is expected to limit additional strengthening, and the new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance in calling for a 90-95 kt intensity during this time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, but by that time Bonnie will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. This should lead to gradual weakening starting after 60 h and continuing for the remainder of the forecast period. The initial motion is 290/15 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should cause a general west-northwestward to westward motion through the forecast period, with a slowing of the forward speed during the first 48 h as the cyclone passes to the south of a weakness in the ridge. The new forecast track is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance and lies close to the various consensus models. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven