329 WTPZ43 KNHC 252055 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Celia passed just south of Socorro Island this afternoon. Microwave data and conventional satellite imagery indicate the inner-core convection has become fragmented into small bands around the low-level center. The deepest convection associated with the storm is occurring in bands over 200 n mi east and southeast of the main circulation. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB supports an initial intensity of 50 kt, which could still be generous based on the latest objective intensity aids and wind observations from Socorro Island. Unfortunately, no recent ASCAT data was available for Celia. The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed, as a mid-level ridge to the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving to the west-northwest for the next several days. As Celia becomes a weaker and shallower system, it is forecast to turn westward and accelerate a bit within the low-level flow by days 4-5. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no major changes. Celia is now centered north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and the latest track forecast brings the system into an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment through early next week. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is likely to lose its organized deep convection and become a post-tropical low by Tuesday. Then, the remnant low is expected to spin down over cooler waters within a drier, more stable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the previous advisory and the various intensity consensus aids, including IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.6N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart