000
FOPZ13 KNHC 212034
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
2100 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 4(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 40(50) 6(56) X(56)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 2(22)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 26(45) 4(49)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 25(46)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
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FORECASTER BERG