000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202036 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Celia remains a sheared tropical cyclone south of southern Mexico with deep convection confined to the west of the center due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the center is still exposed, deep convection has increased a little today and banding features are becoming a little better established on the system's south and west sides. Satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 37 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 30 kt based on that data. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon. After moving south of due west for the past 18-24 hours, Celia has now turned westward and picked up speed. The latest initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. Celia is expected to continue westward for the next couple of days as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. After that time, a slightly slower west-northwest motion is expected as it moves on the southwest side of the ridge. Although the models generally agree on the large-scale steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in forward speed and direction. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and still lies to the north of the consensus models, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models. The ongoing east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for another day, so strengthening will likely be limited in the short term. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that time, and given the moist airmass and high SSTs, steady strengthening seems likely between 24 and 96 hours. By the end of the forecast period, Celia will likely be moving over cooler SSTs, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak than the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.1N 98.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi