000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181439 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, this activity does not have much organization and already appears to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is changed little from the previous forecast. Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin