000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Conventional satellite imagery and earlier GMI and SSMI/S microwave images indicated that the location of Blas' center was near the northern edge of the deep convective mass. Evidently, the northeasterly shear persists and impinges on the north portion of the cloud pattern. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and the initial intensity is, once again, held at 75 kt. Blas is expected to move over cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures and into a high statically stable thermodynamic surrounding environment during the next few days. Gradual weakening is then forecast through the remainder of the period. The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one and sides with the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity forecasts. The microwave passes showed Blas a little north of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. Blas is embedded in the east-southeasterly steering flow generated by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending from northern Mexico into the eastern North Pacific ocean. Some strengthening of the ridge should cause Blas to increase forward speed today. A weaker, more vertically shallow cyclone will likely turn westward in the low-level easterlies by early next week. Only minor along-track adjustments were made to the new track forecast, and a blend of the HCCA and TVCE were used as a basis. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts