000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152054 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The satellite presentation of Blas this afternoon remains quite healthy, with deep cold cloud tops below -80 C near the center and a well-defined curved band wrapping 3/4ths around the western side of the cyclone. A late arriving AMSR2 pass at 1854 UTC still showed a mid-level eye feature on 89-GHz, though it remains a bit open to the east on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak estimates from 1800 UTC were up to T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate has been holding steady at T4.4/75 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 75 kt for this advisory. Blas has maintained a general west-northwestward heading today, currently estimated at 290/5 kt. The track philosophy has also not changed much today, as a deep-layer ridge building westward to the north of Blas is expected to maintain the cyclone on its current heading with a bit of acceleration over the next couple of days. Afterwards, Blas is likely to become increasingly steered by the lower-level flow as it becomes vertically shallow, leading to a slowdown and bend in the track to the west and west-southwest at the end of the forecast period. There was a modest increase in forward motion from the guidance suite this cycle, so the track forecast was also nudged a bit faster, but is still very close to the previous forecast track and near the reliable consensus aids. Blas has intensified 30-kt in the last 24 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. Whether of not this rate of intensification continues likely hinges on the impact of moderate (20-30 kt) easterly vertical wind shear which both the GFS and ECMWF suggest is already impinging on the cyclone. The latest intensity forecast still shows a peak of 85 kt in 24 h, but slows the rate of intensification relative to the prior advisory. This forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the latest SHIPS and LGEM runs. After 36 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to rapidly decrease underneath Blas as it also moves towards an increasingly dry and stable environment, as seen by the widespread stratocumulus field to the northwest of the system on visible satellite. Weakening is forecast to commence by Friday, with the global model guidance now suggesting Blas could become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period as convection ceases. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.4N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 18.0N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin