234
FOPZ12 KNHC 151455
PWSEP2
HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 3 70(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
15N 105W 50 X 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
15N 105W 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 41(48) 3(51) X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 3(21)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN