559 WTPZ41 KNHC 282033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Agatha continues to gain strength. Satellite images show a persistent central dense overcast feature and curved bands that wrap about halfway around the center. An ASCAT-B pass from about 16Z showed peak winds of 40-45 kt. More recently, the Dvorak classifications range from 45 to 55 kt. Based on all of this satellite data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The center of Agatha has been wobbling around for much of the day, but the general motion has been north-northwestward at 4 kt. A continued slow and erratic northwest or north motion is likely through tonight, followed by a more steady northeastward motion on Sunday as the storm becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest. This slightly faster northeastward motion should take Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico by late Monday. Overall, the models have trended eastward and the official forecast has been nudged in that direction. All of the large-scale environmental factors (wind shear, moisture, SST/heat content) are expected to be close to ideal for Agatha until it reaches the coast. Accordingly, several of the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 70 percent. Due to these factors and probabilistic guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of models and shows rapid intensification occurring in the short term. Rapid weakening is forecast after the storm makes landfall, and although the storm is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico, the remnants are likely to move over the southwestern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week. Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has issued hurricane and tropical storm warnings for southern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 13.8N 98.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 14.0N 98.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 14.9N 97.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 15.7N 96.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0600Z 16.5N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi