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000
ABNT20 KNHC 221727
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical 
Storm Josephine, located a couple hundred miles southeast of 
Nantucket Island, Massachusetts.

Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the 
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is 
possible through Friday while it moves slowly north-northeastward. 
Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further 
development by the weekend.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...JOSEPHINE BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Josephine was located near 40.0, -65.8 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 
000
WTNT35 KNHC 222037
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026
 
...JOSEPHINE BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Josephine was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 65.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph
(28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a faster 
forward speed tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on
Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should
move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Josephine is 
expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone with 
hurricane-force winds tonight or early Friday. 
 
Winds of 40 mph (60 km/h) extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44001 located north of the center 
recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 58 mph (94 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the
northeastern United States coast through this evening. See products
issued by your local National Weather Service office for more
details.
 
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more information.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 
000
WTNT25 KNHC 222037
TCMAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026
2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2026
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  65.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......360NE 110SE 170SW 240NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 540SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  65.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  66.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.3N  62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...360NE 130SE 180SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.9N  58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...390NE 160SE 190SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N  55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 200SE 190SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.8N  52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 190SE 190SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.6N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N  65.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 
000
WTNT45 KNHC 222038
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026

The convective cloud pattern of Josephine now resembles that of a 
warm frontal band, with little evidence of tropical-cyclone like 
curvature. In addition, the circulation center is becoming 
elongated and cold-air clouds are increasing in the southern 
semicircle. Based on these developments and the earlier 
scatterometer pass showing a developing frontal boundary, Josephine 
has become an extratropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set 
at 55 kt, and this could be conservative.
 
The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast or 055/15 kt. 
Josephine should move generally northeastward with some increase 
in forward speed tonight, followed by an eastward turn as it 
becomes well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. On the 
forecast track, the center of Josephine will move away from the New 
England states this evening and pass south of Nova Scotia and 
Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is again tightly 
clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous 
forecast.

Josephine is expected to strengthen as an extratropical low tonight 
due to the influence of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough 
over eastern Canada and the New England states, with winds reaching 
hurricane force.  After tonight the global dynamical models are in 
good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken, and they 
forecast Josephine to dissipate by 72 h as it is absorbed by a new 
low pressure area developing to its northeast. The new intensity 
forecast is based mainly on the global models and again has only 
minor adjustments from the last forecast.  The wind radii forecasts 
have also been revised based on the global model forecasts.

This will be the last advisory on Josephine issued by the National 
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Please also see products from local National Weather Service 
offices and Environment Canada for more information regarding the 
effects of Josephine in coastal areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 40.0N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  23/0600Z 41.3N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/1800Z 42.9N  58.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  24/0600Z 43.5N  55.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1800Z 43.8N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0600Z 43.6N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 
000
FONT15 KNHC 222037
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                    
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X  19(19)  28(47)   5(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X  48(48)  14(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X  23(23)  11(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X  18(18)   8(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34 81   8(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 
SYDNEY NS      34 35  31(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X  52(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 19   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 26   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:22:57 GMT