Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 96

   Mesoscale Discussion 0096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0903 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Areas affected...northern Indiana vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191503Z - 191630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce marginally
   severe hail for a couple of hours this morning. The overall risk
   should remain limit in magnitude, and a watch is not expected at
   this time.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within
   an area of warm advection to the north of a surface warm front.
   Morning regional RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated cold
   temperatures aloft supporting midlevel lapse rates greater than 7
   C/km. As a result, MUCAPE has increased to 250-500 J/kg. Sufficient
   effective shear for organized storms is present. Furthermore,
   elongated hodographs with increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft
   are noted. This environment may sporadically support strong storms
   producing marginal hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The
   magnitude of this initial convection is expected to remain limit,
   precluding watch issuance at this time.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41128707 41458609 41618540 41508470 41148462 40718465
               40568515 40528636 40598680 40768704 41128707 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN