Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeast North Dakota into northern
Minnesota
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 180408Z - 180815Z
SUMMARY...A wintry mix should continue to develop ahead of an
approaching precipitation band near the Canadian border. The best
chance for heavy snow (perhaps 1 inch/hour rates) will be across far
northeastern ND and northeastern MN tonight, especially after 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A 986 mb surface low over eastern SD should continue to
drift northward toward the Upper MS Valley and deepen further with
the eastward progression of a negatively tilted mid-level trough. As
this occurs, continued 850-700 mb warm air/moisture advection will
continue to fortify a primarily zonal arching band of mixed
precipitation, which should continue to steadily lift northward with
time. KMVX dual-polarimetric radar data depicts a likely mix of snow
and sleet just above the surface within the core of the
precipitation band. Meanwhile, surface observations depict snow as
the main precipitation type along the northern periphery of the
band. Strong easterly Surface-850 mb cold-air advection is underway
across northeastern MN, and this should support dynamic cooling of
the column along and just south of the Canadian border through
tonight. Furthermore, wet-bulb temperatures are at or below the
freezing mark to the south of 0C observed temperatures, suggesting
that latent cooling from precipitation may also contribute to
low-level tropospheric cooling.
Cold-air advection is and should remain strongest across
northeastern MN, where the best chance for heavy snow exists. Heavy
snow may also develop across portions of far northeastern ND. In
both areas, 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur, especially after 06Z
based on mesoanalysis/HRRR trends, which is in rough agreement with
00Z HREF ensemble probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49059629 49009503 48829452 48709390 48669317 48569264
48289169 48239082 48118989 48048952 47898963 47609052
47149124 46909174 47009252 47539438 47989626 48149868
48210000 48450026 48710030 48910026 49019994 49059942
49049833 49059629
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