Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026 Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...northern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 1... Valid 081644Z - 081845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues. SUMMARY...A squall line is expected to push east/northeast into southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas through early/mid afternoon. Severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible. Watch issuance downstream of ongoing WW 1 is uncertain, but will be considered if trends begin to suggest an increasing severe threat. DISCUSSION...Cloud-top temperatures and lightning data have shown a steady weakening of a squall line across northeast OK over the past hour as the band of storms begins to struggle against diminishing MLCAPE. However, severe wind gusts, including an 81 mph gust near Independence, KS, continue to be noted with this line. These winds are primarily being driven by very strong low-level flow/wind shear as depicted by KINX, KSRX, and KSGF VWP observations that show 50 knots winds near 1 km ARL. These strong kinematics are expected to persist - if not intensify - through late morning/early afternoon as the primary upper wave continues to eject towards the mid-MS Valley and an attendant surface cyclone intensifies. Consequently, even with very meager buoyancy downstream into AR and southern MO (MLCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg), severe/damaging winds appear probable, and a brief tornado or two may be possible with any deeper convective elements given 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. That said, it remains unclear how widespread these threats will be considering the recent weakening trend, and may be conditioned on the quality of moisture return into and north of the Ozark Plateau through mid-afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance. ..Moore.. 01/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 35699149 34869516 34859546 34899555 35049562 35189554 35459536 35709519 35889514 36109508 36279505 36479504 36609505 36779511 36909516 37049515 37189504 38199247 38039209 37799181 37479167 37229156 36959147 36649137 36209129 35889131 35699149 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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