Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 81

   Mesoscale Discussion 0081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina...eastern West
   Virginia...and western to central Virginia

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 111726Z - 112230Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to become more widespread in the
   lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains across far northwest North Carolina,
   far eastern West Virginia, and western to central Virginia through
   the afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour
   appear likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broad swath of stratiform precipitation (largely
   driven by strong warm advection between 925-700 mb) continues to
   spread east/northeast across the TN Valley and into the
   southern/central Appalachians. Sub-freezing temperatures throughout
   the column this morning across WV/VA have resulted in several inches
   of snowfall per recent reports. However, mPING reports of sleet
   across northern NC/southern VA suggest that the 925-850 mb freezing
   lines are beginning to migrate northward. This trend is expected to
   continue through the afternoon hours as a subtle mid-level impulse
   (currently over the Mid-South) continues to propagate northeast
   along the mid-level baroclinic zone and augments southerly flow/warm
   air advection. This will result in gradually warming mid-level
   temperatures as the primary precipitation shield shifts east. At the
   surface, cold air damming along the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains,
   combined with very limited diurnal heating and low-level wet-bulb
   cooling, has maintained sub-freezing temperatures from far northwest
   NC into VA. Although surface temperatures in 12 UTC guidance appear
   to be running too warm compared to 17 UTC observations, recent
   RAP/HRRR solutions have captured temperature trends well and suggest
   a transition from snow to sleet, and eventually freezing rain, will
   begin by around 18 UTC in the immediate lee of the higher terrain.
   Sleet/freezing rain should spread east through the afternoon with
   freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour likely for most
   locations (though locally higher rates are possible).

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36018168 36048189 36138204 36288208 37188155 37598122
               38158082 38368054 38548010 38587977 38537922 38397875
               38027804 37717768 37467757 37277762 37147771 37067797
               37017821 37037856 37027879 37007932 36927975 36608042
               36018168