Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 724

   Mesoscale Discussion 0724
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

   Areas affected...Far southern Colorado...northeast New Mexico and
   Portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151934Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based convection developing across portions of the
   southern High Plains may pose a risk of strong to severe downburst
   winds through early evening. Watch issuance is not expected given
   the short-lived and spatially limited nature of this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in recent GOES imagery along
   the Raton Mesa and southeastward towards the far northwest TX
   Panhandle. Continued weak upslope flow and low-level convergence
   along a trough axis should promote further convective development
   through the afternoon as temperatures climb into the low 90s and
   SBCAPE values increase to around 500 J/kg. Very weak mid-level flow
   will limit storm organization and longevity; however, a very deeply
   mixed boundary layer (LCLs estimated to be around 3.5 to 4 km AGL)
   will promote evaporative cooling and downdraft acceleration of even
   modestly deep convective cores. Consequently, sporadic bursts of
   strong to severe winds appear possible as convection evolves over
   the next few hours. Given the poor kinematic environment, this
   threat will most likely be too short-lived and spatially confined to
   warrant watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35510288 35670386 35950435 36300478 36810520 37070531
               37410519 37610491 37720456 37490416 37200367 36900312
               36700259 36530213 36130201 35810204 35610219 35480244
               35510288 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH