US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 628

   Mesoscale Discussion 0628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas and southern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041549Z - 041745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the
   late morning and afternoon hours, but an overall limited kinematic
   environment should modulate the severe threat. However, a few
   instances of severe hail and damaging winds appears possible through
   early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, a handful of convective
   towers and developing thunderstorms have emerged along a surface
   cold front in eastern OK and across the warm sector as a mid-level
   impulse propagates across the region. MRMS vertically integrated
   ice, cloud top temperatures, and lightning trends all show steady
   intensification as these cells mature in an environment
   characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Much of eastern OK, AR, and
   southern MO is in between two synoptic shortwave troughs, which is
   resulting in relatively weak mid-level winds. However, the gradual
   approach of an open wave from the southwest will slowly increase
   mid/upper-level winds through early/mid-afternoon, resulting in
   elongation of deep-layer wind profiles with effective shear values
   approaching 20-25 knots. This combination of moderate buoyancy and
   modest wind fields should allow for some storm organization into
   multi-cell clusters with an attendant marginal hail risk (most
   likely between 0.5 to 1.0 inch in diameter). Heading into the
   afternoon hours, low-level heating of a moist air mass should
   support surface-based convection with an increasing potential for
   damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, this threat appears
   most likely to materialize across central to north-central AR over
   the next 2-4 hours.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35119676 36199475 37199346 37609241 37649167 37399111
               37069084 36429085 35679098 34989127 34519161 34239224
               33709437 33679518 33849582 34149637 34589674 34939682

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