Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 626

   Mesoscale Discussion 0626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

   Areas affected...southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 300139Z - 300315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolate to widely scattered elevated supercells will
   continue to pose a risk for severe hail this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0135 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
   new storms had developed across WW182 in the last two hours.
   Organization has been noted with several of these storms displaying
   fairly strong mid-level rotation. These storms are likely elevated,
   north of the sagging front/outflow.

   Still, a broad reservoir of elevated buoyancy remains in place
   across southwest TX with 3000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steep
   mid-level lapse rates (DRT/MAF RAOBs). Effective shear is also
   robust with 50-60 kt of deep-layer zonal flow overspreading the
   region. This should continue to support supercells with significant
   hail potential (2-3") along the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest TX
   this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 04/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30370175 30490060 30299982 29849924 29399871 28679852
               28299869 28179903 28129929 28119988 28180006 28300040
               28490059 28920088 29470135 29600153 29670158 30370175 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN