Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 624

   Mesoscale Discussion 0624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 292250Z - 300015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk (primarily for large hail) continues
   across WW182 this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms remains ongoing along the modified
   outflow/cold front in northern portions of WW182. So far, these
   storms have remained on the cool side of the slowly sagging boundary
   with little intensification noted. Still, some storm-scale rotation
   and presence of large MUCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg) amid favorable
   deep-layer shear for supercells will support severe potential,
   mainly in the form of large to very large hail. An uptick in severe
   potential could occur if these storms are able to move onto the warm
   side of the boundary. This would also support some risk for an
   isolated tornado and damaging gusts, but this remains uncertain.

   Additional development has been noted farther northwest along the
   boundary into Terrell and Crockett Counties. CAM guidance and
   observational trends suggest a similar severe risk is possible with
   these storms as they mature this evening. Given the extremely
   unstable and strongly sheared environment, the severe risk continues
   across WW182.

   ..Lyons.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30720120 30700036 30239915 29759872 29199853 28749867
               28519899 28229954 28180025 28830060 29230087 29630144
               29660166 29930172 30470182 30720120 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN