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Mesoscale Discussion 622 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180... Valid 040128Z - 040330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible even as storms may tend to become elevated later into the evening. DISCUSSION...KVNX/KDDC VAD profiles show an increase in the low-level jet. The 00Z observed DDC sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates though some capping was also present. Current convection in WW 180 is expected to continue eastward with aid from the low-level jet. The primary severe risk will exist with a storm near the Wichita/Kearney County line. This storm will be capable of hail up to 1.5-2 in. A line of storms is also moving east from near Garden City to just west of Beaver, OK. This line has shown some deepening cores on MRMS CAPPI and could produce severe wind gusts. The overall eastern extent of the severe risk is not clear. However, even as storms may become elevated with time, large hail and isolated damaging winds could still occur. The tornado risk is conditional on a discrete storm mode and should continue to diminish as low-level stability increases. Some areal extension of WW 180 could be needed depending on convective trends over the next 2 hours. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 38680144 39000081 38999910 38689893 38069879 38049879 37999879 37279897 36849950 36660018 36540079 36620141 36700160 38680144 |
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