Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 622

   Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

   Areas affected...central Louisiana and far eastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

   Valid 292220Z - 300015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some risk of severe hail, and perhaps damaging winds,
   persists across portions of WW 180 in central Louisiana.
   Additionally, conditions are being monitored along and south of an
   outflow boundary for additional development within a buoyant air
   mass.

   DISCUSSION...Organized convection with a history of producing severe
   hail continues to traverse far eastern TX and western LA. Although
   this activity will likely remain elevated behind a surface
   front/outflow boundary, the downstream environment continues to
   feature sufficient MUCAPE (around 1500 J/kg) and deep-layer wind
   shear for organized convection, including the potential for elevated
   supercells. Consequently, the primary hazard will most likely be
   large hail (most likely in the 1 to 1.75 inch range, though hail
   stones up to 2 inches appear possible given favorably weak low-level
   shear and strong flow aloft). Sporadic damaging winds also appear
   possible given the relatively warm (albeit still stable) surface
   conditions.

   Further south, trends are being monitored as new convection attempts
   to develop along and ahead of the front/outflow boundary. Convection
   developing towards the south will mature in a similarly favorable
   environment and will pose a severe hail threat. New convection may
   develop to the south of the current bounds of WW 180 depending on
   the southward propagation of the outflow. If this occurs, downstream
   watch issuance may be needed.

   ..Moore.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32289383 32339351 32189216 32109188 31949158 31679149
               31099161 30969173 30719200 30649259 30659302 30739343
               30819386 30979419 31279438 31619443 31819442 31999436
               32209414 32289383 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN