Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 616

   Mesoscale Discussion 0616
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...west-central Texas...from the South Plains to the
   Concho Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 178...

   Valid 032152Z - 032315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 178 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across Tornado
   Watch 178, including a very intense/strongly rotating supercell
   moving southeastward across Coke County north of San Angelo.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated storms extending from
   north of Lubbock southeastward to near San Angelo.  Given the very
   favorable thermodynamic environment (2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer
   CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) across the area, and
   low-level southeasterlies veering to west-southwesterly at mid
   levels, risk for very large hail, locally damaging winds, and
   isolated tornadoes continues.

   One storm in particular appears strongly tornadic at this time per
   radar observations.  In addition to an extremely well-defined hook
   with an eye-like area of lesser reflectivity apparent, the latest
   storm-relative velocity data from the KSJT WSR-88D shows rotational
   velocity in excess of 90kt -- coincident with the "reflectivity eye"
   within the hook, would suggest the possibility of an ongoing
   significant tornado.  While this storm is currently moving
   southeastward across relatively sparsely populated areas, continued
   southeastward motion could allow the storm to approach areas near
   and east of the San Angelo area in the next hour.  With that said, a
   recent turn to a more east-southeastward motion has been observed in
   the past couple of volume scans.

   ..Goss.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32000104 34620199 34780180 32209994 31689983 31400012
               31450056 32000104