Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 533

   Mesoscale Discussion 0533
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin into extreme southeast
   NM

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

   Valid 232255Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may persist through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing as
   of 2245 UTC across the TX Trans-Pecos region. The most intense
   ongoing storm is a left-moving supercell moving northward to the
   west of Wink, TX. This cell may persist into southeast NM, as it
   moves along a north-south oriented instability gradient into early
   evening. Favorable lapse rates/buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer
   shear will result in a threat of large hail for as long as this cell
   persists, with a conditional threat of hail larger than golf balls.
   Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible within the
   relatively well-mixed environment. 

   Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain severe
   intensity, with somewhat cooler temperatures and stronger MLCINH
   noted in the vicinity of the cell west of Fort Stockton. However,
   deep-layer shear increases with southward extent due to the presence
   of a subtropical jet, and the environment remains conditionally
   favorable for supercells and an attendant severe hail/wind threat if
   any updrafts can be sustained. Also, locally backed flow and
   somewhat richer low-level moisture could support some tornado
   potential if any supercell can be sustained in the region near/south
   of Fort Stockton.

   ..Dean.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30050448 31720379 32840349 32880274 31270247 29830254
               29200274 29040314 29080367 29240400 29520440 30050448 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN