Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 532

   Mesoscale Discussion 0532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...far southeast Colorado into much of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...

   Valid 232230Z - 240000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 163. Large hail remain the primary immediate threat. However,
   severe gusts may become a bigger concern later as storms merge. A
   tornado remains possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across
   portions of northwestern Kansas, some with a history of producing
   hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as occasional bouts of
   low-level rotation. Given 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and
   locally stronger deep-layer shear preceding these supercell
   structures, large hail (including 2+ inch stones) should remain the
   primary hazard over the next couple of hours. However, these storms
   are rapidly increasing in coverage and are showing signs of merging.
   Should mergers occur, a cold-pool-driven MCS structure may
   materialize with a severe gust threat and perhaps some lingering
   concerns for hail. Several of these supercells will generate outflow
   boundaries, and if a persistent updraft anchors to any of these
   boundaries with unimpeded inflow, a tornado may also occur.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37420322 38490231 39350144 39660045 39209994 38659979
               37749996 37280037 37120112 37010164 37090269 37420322 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN