Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 530

   Mesoscale Discussion 0530
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles...TX South Plains/Permian
   Basin...extreme eastern NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232152Z - 232345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible into
   this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway as of 2130 UTC
   across the northern TX into the OK Panhandle, with increasing
   cumulus noted farther south into the western TX Panhandle and far
   eastern NM. Strong heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has
   resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE
   generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range per modified soundings and
   recent objective mesoanalyses. While large-scale ascent is generally
   modest, continued heating within the uncapped environment will
   support isolated to widely scattered storm development from late
   this afternoon into the evening. 

   Midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but some veering of flow
   with height is supporting 25-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient
   for development of organized multicells and perhaps a couple of
   supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather strong upper-level
   flow will result in hail potential with any sustained storms across
   the region. Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible
   within the steep lapse-rate environment. Some increase in low-level
   shear/SRH is expected this evening across the TX/OK Panhandles,
   which could eventually support a conditional tornado threat if any
   supercells can persist across that area. 

   Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support
   development of multiple sustained severe storms into this evening.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32780297 34100317 34820322 35190317 35650306 36250272
               36740224 36890151 36950088 36940061 35820040 33890032
               32840053 32650081 32300165 32160247 32240273 32780297 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN